SIUE men's basketball schedule analysis Part II...December

Hopefully November went well and we saw an improved team from last season. Let's take a look at what comes next in December.

Look for the January post soon...no promises on exactly when, but soon. Very soon. 

December 1 vs. Tennessee Tech

Senior Kevin Murphy leads the Golden Eagles into Edwardsville to open up the second month of the basketball season. Murphy averaged 15.3 last season for a team which made the OVC semifinals in Nashville, where they suffered a difficult defeat at the hands of Morehead State. TTU wasn't expected to make it that far at 15-17 in the regular season, but they upset Austin Peay in the tournament's opening round to make it to Music City. TTU is going to be picked in the middle of the OVC, and outside of Murphy, their biggest returning scoring threat will be junior Jud Dillard. This will be the first ever meeting between the Cougars and Golden Eagles. TTU is a weak team inside, which helps the Cougars, who we assume will be better inside after an off-season in the weight room and the addition of Abel Tillman. Nobody on the team averaged more than six rebounds per game last season. They do have Liom McMorrow entering the mix as a junior coming off a redshirt season. He is a 7 footer and what the Eagles are going to need if they want to be successful. He is a transfer from Marquette and a Canadian, so maybe he knows Dob? who knows. Mitchell Hill is a freshman guard who owns his high school's all-time scoring record, so maybe he can step in and make an impact. Being at home, the Cougars have the upper hand, and I think the VC could become a tough place for opposing teams.

Win probability: 55 percent


Dec. 4 vs. Middle Tennessee State

I am sure this game is going to be filled with emotion and one SIUE wants to avoid losing at all costs. MTSU has bullied the Cougars around quite a bit the last two seasons, both on the road. SIUE finally gets its chance at a return game, and the guys are going to be amped up for a victory. Why would they get so fired up about a team like the Blue Raiders? Well, they have 54 different reasons to feel that way. They beat SIUE by 25 and 29 in 2009 and 2010 respectively. It's nothing MTSU did special, it was just SIUE not showing up to play. They were probably supposed to beat us at their place but not as bad as it has been. They have been a very steady basketball team since Kermit Davis Jr. took over a five win team in 2002. The team has won 14, 16, 17, 19, 16, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19 games under his direction. He has been consistent if anything, but unable to get his team to the NCAA tournament, which it last played in during the 1989 season. They had an RPI of 177 last year, which isn't terrible, but won't get it done at 19 wins.  This team is still trying to get over the hump, but the consistency and stability of the program has been above average and helps all across the board, as far as recruiting and success go. Desmond Yates and Montarrio Haddock and Desmond Yates, the teams two leading scorers from last season are gone, but they have a mix of JUCO players and redshirts looking to fill those voids. They also have Jimmy Oden coming back from sitting out a year after transferring from Lipscomb.
MTSU could contend in the Sun Belt. They have some holes to fill, and SIUE better be itching for this one. I like our chances, but it could go either way.


Win Probability: 51 percent




December 8 at Loyola (Il.)

It has not been close between SIUE and Loyola the past two seasons. Last year, SIUE had some trouble against the Ramblers and lost 79-61. It was right before the Cougars went to Purdue, and Lennox said something like "if we play this bad against Purdue we will lose by 80 points." Well, SIUE got it together and played fairly well in South Lafayette, but that didn't change the fact they got it handed to them by Loyola. In 2008, it was even worse. an 89-65 loss in Chicago.
In this one, the Cougars are going to have to watch out for Walt Gibler. He had 22 points for the Ramblers, while now graduated Terrance Hill led the team with 23 points. Andy Polka had 11 rebounds, but there wasn't much else coming from Loyola's rebounding game. Denzel Brito is a freshman who can have an impact after averaging 16 points his senior year of high school. They were 14-16 last year and just 5-13 in the Horizon League, but they did have to deal with Butler twice and three other 20 win schools a few times. I do believe SIUE is a better team and has a chance, historically though, Loyola has been tough since making the switch to D-I ball.

Win probability: 50 percent


Dec. 11 vs. Kennesaw State

The Owls are a team SIUE can learn from. They can learn from the marginal success they have had as well as the mistakes they have made on their way to Division I. Last year was Kennesaw's first year without the transitional tag placed upon them by the NCAA. The Owls have arrived, and the team is still trying to find the winning ways it left in Division II. I remember watching Kennesaw win the D-II Championship on CBS back in 2004. A lot has happened since then.
Last season, SIUE lost on the road 71-60. There were seven seniors on the Owls roster, but none of them were really what we would call impact players. Jon Michael-Nickerson was a seven point per game player and four of the seniors saw very limited action off the bench.
The team's leading scorer was a freshman, Markeith Cummings scored 17 points per game. He is only going to get better people, and with that, so will the Owls. This guy could be the player of the year in the Atlantic Sun as a sophomore. He is a 230 pound 6'7 guy, so he isn't a post player per say who is going to drown SIUE inside, but a tough matchup none the less, especially if he is going up against Mark Yelovich. It's going to be an interesting 1-on-1 battle to watch. Last year, they improved by five wins, much to Cummings credit. Tony Ingle has this program on the rise, but they are still young. Their second leading scorer, Kurtis Woods was a sophomore at 12 ppg. He is a guy to watch as well. Cummings and Kurtis each had 20 points against the Cougars last season, and are this teams offense. Yelovich had 21 for SIUE. This one is going to be close.

Win probability: 60 percent

December 17 at Indiana

It's the first game in the campus portion of the Las Vegas Classic, which has a kind of funky set-up, considering these games have no meaning to the actual tournament since it's broken up into major and mid-major divisions, but who cares! I'm going to Bobby Knight land to cover the Cougars! This is another one of those games where if we win it's massive. No one expects the Cougars to go into Bloomington and win no matter how bad Indiana is. If we lose, it's what everyone expects. I heard this game is going to be on the Big Ten network, but it hasn't been completely confirmed so I'll shut up about that and talk about the Hoosiers.

Tom Crean has been on the hot seat ever since taking over at IU. That's what happens there, they live basketball. Bobby Knight - Kelvin Sampson - Tom Crean. You have to be a high profile coach to make it here, and even then there are no guarantees you will. Indiana has been a disappointment for a few years now, and it's confusing to me. This team went from 25 wins in 2008 to six in 2009 and 10 last year. They are hoping for a winning season this year, which isn't out of the question. A return to glory is for the time being. Sampson messed up the program bad. The recruiting is better this year under Crean, but other Big Ten teams like Ohio State and Illinois have been making better strides in that department to distance themselves. This team will once again be in the bottom half of the Big Ten. Maurice Creek and Verdell Jones are going to be the guys to watch, like they were last year. Keep in mind how the Hoosiers did last season. They beat USC Upstate 69-61, a game they should have won by much more. They lost to George Mason (The 2010 version, not the 2006...very different) Loyola Marymount and Boston U. They rolled over Bryant by 48 and North Carolina Central by 23. They struggled in the Big Ten, but the non-conference was a bit inconsistent all the way around. It's a team on the up, but it's a long hill to climb. I think SIUE stays competitive, but falls in the end.


Win probability: 30 percent


December 19 at Northern Iowa

We all remember that moment. Northern Iowa took down Kansas to advance to the Elite Eight last year. It was pretty awesome. Last year was a landmark year for the UNI program. They started to get a little recognition during the peak years of the Missouri Valley and beat Iowa a few times. Now, expectations are bigger than ever, which may not necessarily be fair on Ben Jacobson and the Panthers because they had built that team for success in 2009-2010. 30 wins with three coming in the NCAA tournament is pretty special. This year, they will get 20, and possibly have a shot to win the MVC, but it isn't going to be with the same steamroller attitude and precision from last year. You still have Ahelegbe Kwadzo at 10 ppg 3 rpg but some of the bigger guys like Jordan Eglseder (11 ppg 8 rpg), Ali Farokhmanesh (10 ppg, giant killer) and team leader Adam Koch gone UNI is not the same team. There are some potential star freshmen coming in to hopefully fill the void, like Jared Syndergaard (18 ppg 9 rpg 2 apg in high school) and James Humpall who plays bigger than his 6''7 frame with 17 ppg, 8 rpg and a whopping 4 blocks per game. They also have six redshirts coming back, so this is something they were prepared for. Bottom line, I still don't like the Cougars chances in Cedar Falls.


Win Probability: 25 percent

December 22 and 23: Vegas portion of Las Vegas Classic: Dec. 22 vs. Longwood , Dec. 23 vs. The Citadel/ South Carolina State



I am so glad we get to play Longwood this season, because it provides the perfect barometer to gauge our transition with.

Longwood is an interesting case. They completed their transition to Division I in 2007, but remain without a conference. Luckily, SIUE figured this out from the beginning, but it has hurt the Lancers immensely throughout their D-I existence. Nobody wants to play for a team without a conference. They Lancers have balanced this out with an impressive schedule year in, year out because all the guarantee money is really the only way they can operate without a conference. This tournament is big for them, because they don't get to play in tournaments. After this season, Longwood will have played 25 games against teams from major conferences, if we factor in New Mexico. They played Virginia on the road four straight years from 2006 through last season. They play at Kansas, Marquette, Seton Hall as well as New Mexico and Colorado as a part of their campus portion of the LVC. They get blown out all the time to these big schools and are 0-25 all time against them. The major upset has alluded them, and their independent purgatory has kept them under the national radar, which is a shame. That being said, SIUE should win this game. It is not a guarantee, but it is very possible. The Lancers have done fairly well in their own regard against smaller conference teams, enough to put together 12, 17 and 12 win seasons the previous three years. They also do play their fair share of Non-DI competition to bulk up the win totals a bit. Antwan Carter is a very good senior the Cougars should watch out for (15 ppg 9 rpg) in the first ever matchup between these schools.

Win Probability 68 percent

Championship/Consolation game: If we had to pick the less dated/stupid looking bulldog logo, the Cougars will be playing the Citadel the day before Christmas eve. Fortunately for South Carolina State, that is for them to decide on the court. No matter who the Cougars play, it will be the first time ever they play against one of these teams. The Citadel has been a program on the rise in recent years, winning 20 games in 2008-2009. Last year, they won 17. Chuck Driesell takes over as the Head Coach in his first year, and he has some tools to work with as the Citadel remains without an NCAA tournament appearance in its long history. Here's the bad news though: They return just 17 points per game in production from last year and lost 51. It seems like this whole summary comes down to teams losing players, but we really are playing a young schedule all the way around, which benefits SIUE. The Citadel's returning players are going to need to step up big time, and so will the new guys. With a first year head coach, this team could be an adventure this year. It could get rough for them in conference play too, with Wofford, Davidson and the College of Charleston likely vying for the SoCon. South Carolina State was decent last season out of the MEAC at 18-14. They gave Clemson a scare, but fell 70-67. Darnell Porter returns as a Pre-Season all MEAC selection, while Presano Bell and Omar Sanders...a guy who is probably good friends with a few of the SIUE guys coming from Wabash Valley Community College are going to be newcomers to watch. They also lost their two top scorers from last season, and were very close to the NCAA tournament, losing to Morgan State in the MEAC title game. Whoever the Cougars get, I think they'll have a decent shot at it. SIUE actually has a very good shot at winning the mid-major division in Vegas. I think we'll end up with SCSU.

Win probability: 80 percent (Citadel) and 72 percent (South Carolina State)

December 30 at Murray State and January 26 vs. Murray State

If you asked me what the toughest games on the schedule were I wouldn't say Northwestern, Iowa or even Indiana. The best team SIUE will face this year is in its own conference. The Murray State Racers.
I  don't even need stats to evaluate Murray. If this team was loaded last year, it's just as loaded this year. Everyone is back for the OVC champions. Not to mention, Billy Kennedy does a pretty good job recruiting. The fact of the matter is, Murray State will be back in the NCAA tournament, and they will get farther than they did last year. What happened to the Racers last year?....Video refresher time.



That was probably the best game of the NCAA tournament outside of Xavier/Kansas State. We all know what happened to Butler.

In an alternate world, that's Murray State.

IF Morehead State happened to beat the Racers last year in the OVC final, Murray would have likely been left out of the tournament because the OVC doesn't quite have a two-bid reputation. It should have last season, because Murray was that good. They won 30 games and destroyed the OVC...SIUE included on two separate occasions. 82-51 at the VC and 86-49 at the RSEC in Murray. Issiah Cannon was the OVC tournament MVP. Guess what? HE WAS A FRESHMAN LAST YEAR. Then there's BJ Jenkins, Issac Miles, Donte Poole and Ivan Aska. That's an Elite Eight team right there. I hate to believe in conference rivals, but it's hard not to with the Racers. SIUE played Murray well at home in the first half but fell apart. You can't do that against these guys, and it's the worst win probability of this preview thus far.

Win Probability: (Lowest so far) Away: 2 percent Home: 10 percent

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