SIUE men's basketball schedule analysis Part I...November

Sorry it took me so long, but let's take a look at the road ahead for the SIUE men's basketball team in 2010-2011. The schedule was released exactly a week ago and there were questions as to why it took SIUE a little bit longer than it should have.

There were legitimate reasons, and for the most part, it was a matter of us getting screwed over and having to find replacement games.

Joe Pott told me about a week before we got our first glimpse at the schedule Milwaukee dropped us from the schedule. ESPN also dropped us from Bracketbusters after a preliminary announcement was made. The giant schedule plastered on the side of the VC still reads "February 20: ESPN Bracketbuster."

Well, that's not the case anymore.

Coach Forrester had to re-fill these slots, hence why Ball State is a road game for the third straight year and Northwestern is on the schedule.

Ball State will come back to Edwardsville next year, trust me.

Getting dropped from Bracketbusters is actually a blessing in disguise, for a number of reasons.

Last year, ESPN shipped us off to Cal State Fullerton right after playing North Dakota. The Cougars then had to quickly make their way more than halfway around the country to play IPFW in Fort Wayne. SIUE looked good against the Titans after beating UND. IPFW? that was a different story. The team was run down and without motivation. The explanation point on top of this was an embarrassing 30 point loss to a team we were capable of beating. A loss to the Mastadons is alright, as long as you keep it within say, 10 points. Sure, the blowout last year was embarrassing, a set back if you will. The fact of the matter was, and remains this: it wasn't completely our fault. ESPN is partly to blame.

It wasn't a TV bracketbuster. Those games are reserved for your Butlers, Northern Iowas, Sienas and for some reason, SIU Carbondale. It was just a part of a random glorified mid-major circus with no real meaning.    You can have your bracketbusters if they are kept to a minimum. Inviting everyone is really not an option, especially if you can schedule better yourself. Butler isn't even participating this year. They figured, hey, we're fresh off an appearance in the national championship. We can play Duke at a neutral site and get on TV that way. It's really a pointless concept. Lennox differs with this opinion, and when I asked him while talking about they schedule, he agreed with me to a point. It's still a reputable event to him, although it has no real benefit for a school like SIUE.

We replaced Bracketbusters with a guarantee game. Northwestern is paying us six figures to go up to Evanston. Free money and a chance to win a game. It won't be easy, considering the Cats went 20-14 last year, but the chance is there. It's a heck of an easier trip than Fullerton too.

So, that's why we didn't get a schedule until September.

Now, let's talk about said schedule team-by-team, starting with November. We'll knock the whole thing out in a week!

Nov. 7: Webster Gorlocks (NCAA Division III) Exhibition 
Ah, our first taste of Cougar basketball since February. I am not going to disrespect Webster or any team on the schedule and call it a guaranteed win. You give respect, you get respect. I see bloggers from Big Ten schools making fun of us all the time, and I am bigger than that with a DIII school, because we lost an exhibition to Illinois College last year. Let's just take it for what it is. We are a DI school, they are a DIII school. The only school we are allowed to talk crap on here is SIU Carbondale because they are in my mind not allowed to give us any. We are here together, get over it. Back to the subject at hand. Webster was 13-13 last year and had a 10-6 record within the SLIAC. SIUE beat Webster 75-56 the last time the two schools met in a 2008-2009 exhibition.

Win probability: 95 percent


Nov. 12 (home) and Jan. 11 (away): IPFW Mastodons


Now, things get a bit more serious. As I mentioned earlier, IPFW had the Cougars number last year in Fort Wayne. It was not particularly pretty. Nick Daniels hit a game-winning three pointer to down the Cougars late at the VC earlier in the year. The Cougars are really looking for revenge against Dane Fife's team, and they should have a pretty good shot in both games, with the better opportunity obviously coming at the VC.
This is a different looking team than we saw last year. For one, Nick Daniels is gone and won't be burying us. Deilvez Yearby, the Dons' leading scorer from last year is gone as well. Antwone Sneed, a 6 points 6 rebound guy was kicked off of the team. Ben Botts is still a dangerous guy and averaged 11 ppg last season. He will be the guy to watch as far as basketball-related activity goes in these games. Botts had 11 and 16 in the games last year against the Cougars. In somewhat non-basketball related activity, the Nov. 12 game marks the return of Terrance Williams, the 7'0 center from Edwardsville. Williams is listed on the IPFW roster, although it is still questionable whether or not he will be around come November. Remember, he was kicked off the Cougar team late in the 2008-2009 season after he was redshirted in 2007-2008. He transfered to Highland CC and made his way back to DI ball with Fife. Don't think the fans will be particularly warm in welcoming him back.

Win probability: 70 percent at home, 50 percent on the road

Nov. 14 at Illinois State

The first road test for the Cougars is just about two hours away from home in Normal. Like IPFW, the Redbirds may not be as good as they were last season. Like IPFW, Illinois State wasn't the greatest team last year, but unlike IPFW there was a lot of buzz surrounding Tim Jankovich and the Redbirds in 2009-2010. With players like Osiris Eldridge, Dinma Odiakosa and Lloyd Phillips, ISU was primed to accomplish something it had been so close to the previous three seasons...an NCAA tournament birth. It didn't pan out, and those expectations were not met. Northern Iowa ran away with the Missouri Valley Conference. Wichita State took them out in the MVC semifinals and ISU was relegated to the NIT where they lost to eventual champion Dayton. If ISU made it to the NCAA tournament, Eldridge would have been drafted under all likelihood. That didn't happen either. It was another year where ISU got close, but not close enough in a mid-major conference where your every move is criticized by the selection committee. ISU's chance to return to the top of the MVC is bleak as far as next year goes at this point. The teams around them are getting more experienced, while ISU is having to reload, and they will. This, however is not going to be their year. They have a few seniors coming off redshirts, a few promising freshmen, Austin Hill and Alex Rubin. They lost 37 points per game in offensive production, and that will be devastating. SIUE is their home and regular season opener though. The fans at Redbird Arena are going to still be optimistic and as crazy as ever. The Redbirds will come out alive, but it could be close.

Win probability: 40 percent

Nov. 17 (away) and Jan. 18 (home) Eastern Kentucky

Pretend OVC play begins with the first ever meeting between SIUE and EKU in men's basketball, and of course, it won't be the last. The Colonels finished the regular season fourth in the OVC with an overall record of 20-13 last season. I may or may not be the only person to think this, but the OVC is underrated. There is more to the conference than Murray and Morehead, although they are the dominant forces. Eastern Illinois has been making strides and in recent years, EKU and Austin Peay have been right there representing the conference in the NCAA tournament. Their three biggest offensive weapons are gone from last year, and that hurts. You lose 30 points of production like ISU did and like EKU with Papa Oppong, Justin Stommes and Josh Taylor it hurts. Jabs Newby is going to be asked of a lot as a freshman.

Win probability: Home 55 percent Road 45 percent

Nov. 20 MacMurray

Again, no smack on the lower tier teams, even those not affiliated with the NCAA. Heck, during a good year for MacMurray and a down year for NJIT, these guys may even win the battle of the Highlanders. Last year, SIUE downed MacMurray by 30 at home, we can expect to see the same this year, but again, knock on wood...Illinois College.

Either way, this is a regular season game against a non-DI school. This doesn't count for the RPI, so it can't help us, but it sure as hell can hurt us if we lost. We are not going to lose though. 

Win probability: 99 percent

Nov. 24 at UMKC

Last year, this was a disappointing game for SIUE. It was over Christmas break, the Vadalabene Center was pretty empty and I won $93 in the dash for cash. The Cougars let so many opportunities slip by and turnovers were the name of the game. The Cougars beat the Kangaroos two seasons ago, the day after getting the snot kicked out of them by Mizzou. Last year, the Cougars fell to 2-11 on the year, while UMKC improved to 7-5. SIUE had a first half lead, but just couldn't get it together. It was a game we should have won. This team will only get better out of the Summit League. They are building the program and have a ton of things going for them: location, a young coach, young players and a great arena to play in. Two guys to watch: Trey McKinney-Jones and Latreze Mushatt. Both were double-figure guys as sophomores and will only get better. UMKC is going to be a tough team to deal with, and a potential dark-horse in the Summit League. It may not be an NCAA tournament year, but they are improving. 

Win probability: 45 percent

Nov. 26 at Iowa

Get your popcorn ready Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Cougars are coming. I have been talking about this game for a long time, and feel as though it is a game SIUE has a legitimate shot at coming away from with a victory. No doubt it will be tough, even the worst teams in the Big Ten can squash a third year independent in their sleep. A lot has to go right for SIUE in this one, while a lot has to go wrong for Iowa. It can happen though, and although I won't guarantee it, I can see it happening. The Cougars do not have a big time win in program history, and Iowa has been prone to hiccups against small schools. Even when Iowa was good, 15th seed Northwestern State was able to shock them in the NCAA tournament. Iowa is in fact, not good right now. They are rebuilding, and have a great young coach, Fran McAfferey fresh off his stint with Siena. I have a lot of respect for Fran, but the Iowa program has been a mess for a few years now. This was a 10-22 team last year which finished second to last in the Big Ten. They were crushed by UT San Antonio at home and also lost to Duquesne. They barely beat Tennessee State, one of the bottom feeders in the OVC at home as well. Iowa is beatable. On the positive, they distribute scoring fairly well and return their three best players. Recruiting is starting to improve, but 2010 could be another long year for Iowa.

Win probability: (Curved to aid my smack-talk) 60 percent

Nov. 29 Morehead State

Oh yes you do!! and we do too! so we joined your conference and invited you to play at the VC!

I had the privilege of seeing Morehead play last season at the OVC tournament, and this team can pretty much be summed up in two words.

Kenneth. Faried.

The dude is a straight up beast, and will be in the NBA one day. He is the best player to come to Edwardsville this year, and the best since Osiris Eldridge. As long as he waits at lest five minutes for his first dunk I'll be happy. 

Taste these stats: 16.9 ppg, 13 rpg.

Factor in the post game being an assumed weakness for the Cougars between Nik, Dob, Zeke and Abel Tillman and Faried could be in for a big game. Faried had 23 points and 16 boards against SIUE last year too, so he is pretty much an unstoppable force in the paint. Expect some triangle and two's on him, opening up the outside game, which is pretty good as well for the Eagles and it could be rough. 

Win Probability: 25 percent

Tomorrow, we will post December, a big month for SIUE featuring Middle Tennessee State, Loyola, Kennesaw State, the Las Vegas Classic featuring Indiana, Northern Iowa, Longwood and the Citadel or South Carolina State as well as big bad Murray State, the defending OVC champions. See ya then!

Posted in: Archives,Men's basketball