SIUE men's basketball schedule analysis part III January and February

 January 3, at Ball State

The new year begins with a familiar trip for the SIUE Cougars. They open January in Muncie, Ind. to take on the Ball State Cardinals for the third straight season. This game is on the schedule as a replacement for Milwaukee, who dropped the Cougars from their schedule earlier in the year. This team won 15 games last season, and the past two games with SIUE have been lower scoring contests. David Boarden put up the biggest numbers for SIUE last year, who should try and push a little bit more against a tough defensive minded team. Jarrod Jones and Randy Davis are valuable seniors on this team. Jauwaun Scaife also put up points last season as a sophomore. This team usually scores in the 50s or 60s, but scored as few as 35 against Dayton and 88 against Valpo. Defense is their game. The Cougars have a shot, as they have the last few years against Ball State, but it could go either way. Even 50 percent here.


Win probability: 50 percent


January 8 vs. South Dakota

We've discussed this team here before a few times. I don't like them and you probably don't either. This is probably one of the last times we tangle with the Coyotes, because from what I have heard the series will likely end once we are all done transitioning and happily members of Division I. The Coyotes are still here though, and we have to deal with it. This team loses its two best players from last season, which definitely hurts the defending Great West champions. No Tyler Cain, no Steve Smith. These were the big guys at 6''11 and 6''9 and they flat out killed us last year in 100-76 and 91-69 beat downs.

Cain had 26 and 15 in the first meeting and 16 and nine in the second. Smith went for nine and five and 14 and five. On the season, they averaged 14 and 8 ppg respectively. They flat out punished us inside, and showed pure superiority at the Vadalabene Center.

We have a little history with USD. The Cougars are 1-4 against them all time, with all the games coming after 2008. Jake Thomas is the biggest returning threat the Yotes have. It's a little tougher to recruit out of South Dakota than it is for the Cougars, so things could get a little more challenging for the Coyotes as they become a younger team. They are going to miss the senior leadership that brought them up to where they are today in their transition. I talk down on the Great West all the time, but you have to look at it this way. Those other schools are much more established in D-I than USD was last year and they dominated, going 11-1 in the "conference." Chicago State, NJIT, Utah Valley State, Bryant and others don't quite have what USD had. You have to give them props for that. They also beat Minnesota in football, so more props there.

Cougars still have a decent shot at this one. It will be closer than in years past.


Win Probability: 60 percent at home, 45 percent road

January 11 at IPFW: See part I

January 18 vs Eastern Kentucky: See part I


January 20 at Northwestern

I actually think Northwestern will be pretty good, but hey, who doesn't love an angst filled motivational poster I found on google?

The third in a three-game Big Ten guarantee game series on the schedule. The Northwestern Wildcats replace the void left by Bracketbusters, which is great, because even if we lose we get paid for it. Northwestern is a team on the rise in the Big Ten, and definitely not as easy of a game as some people may think. Let's face it. No game is really easy for SIUE.  Northwestern really won't be easy, especially in Evanston. The Wildcats are probably the least sportsy of the Big Ten schools. It is known for offering one of the best educations in the nation, and is one of the few Big six schools you can honestly tell me takes education more seriously than athletics. It is an interesting breed. It has shown on the court and football field in earlier years, but there is hope for the Wildcats in both sports. Heck, they almost beat No. 5 Michigan State this week on the gridiron. They are for real. Last year, they received a national ranking in basketball for the first time in forever, but stumbled down the stretch in Big Ten play. That happens when you play Purdue, Michigan State and Ohio State twice a year. No biggie. Bill Carmody has never seen the NCAA tournament in his coaching tenure, which spans back to 2000 when the program had five wins. Northwestern has NEVER in its history reached the NCAA tournament. Not a lot of Big six schools can say that either. The Wildcats did win 20 games last year though, and they have a very good chance at doing it again this year and improving upon that mark. They have a pretty good schedule to get them momentum coming into this one as well. Georgia Tech is the toughest non-conference game on the schedule for NU.

Senior John Shurna is one of the guys the Cats expect big things from. 18 points a game last year? What kind of an encore will he make? Drew Crawford put up numbers as a freshman, he will only get better too. Jershan Cobb, a freshman from Georgia was given an 88 by Scouts. People in Evanston are starting to believe this may be the year. SIUE will have other plans.

Don't see us coming away with this one, but stranger things have happened. Probably the toughest game out of the Iowa/Indiana/Northwestern games right here. This game happens to fall right in between conference season, so there is a chance NU could lose focus and look ahead to Wisconsin three days later. That could be a bad idea, and is the only way SIUE gets this one.


Win probability: 20 percent

January 24 vs. UT Martin

OK, UTM is not expected to do much this season. They don't have Lester Hudson anymore, and unfortunately for them, he has been in the NBA for a few years now. The Skyhawks beat SIUE last year in a very uninspired road effort. The Cougars will be hoping to rebound here, and UTM has pretty much wrapped up the cellar of the OVC in pre-season conversations. They really are not that good.

Still though, they did beat us last year so we can't rail on them at all. This will be a battle. Every game will be a battle. These OVC games are very important in SIUE earning an identity in the conference. They want teams to know who they are in 2012-2013. They don't want to just be there, they want to be there. In that respect, this is a very important game, and will be more important than it will be advertised as in January no matter what kind of record either team brings to the VC.

Benzor Simmons is the biggest threat out of the Skyhawks five returning seniors. He led the team in scoring, Field goal percentage, Three-point percentage, free-throw percentage and rebounding. It didn't help too much though, UTM won four games. They beat SIUE, SEMO by three, Westminster and Harris Stowe. Only two of those games actually count. You should be able to win more than one game in the OVC. They won one and a half, taking SIUE into account.

Short story short, I am guaranteeing this one.

Win probability: 100 percent, book it, I apologize if we don't.

January 26 vs. Murray State: see Part II


January 29, vs Greenville


After getting trounced by Murray State (most likely,) SIUE gets to hopefully release its frustrations on Division III Greenville. Not a lot to talk about here, besides a little history.  SIUE is 6-0 all-time against the Panthers including a 33 point win in 2008-2009. Not to hate on Greenville, even though their logo is eerily similar to Missouri's with a panther instead of a Tiger. They are an overmatched opponent and we should take advantage. If history repeats itself, it's an easy victory. 


Win probability: 100 percent guaranteed (again)



February 1, vs. Southeast Missouri State

Last year, this was a frustrating one to watch. The Cougars lost by 19 on the road and it was just all around terrible basketball. We couldn't defend Anthony Allison and the three, and they ate us up on the boards. SEMO is better than they were two years ago as the laughingstock of the conference. They went from three wins to seven. Probably look to get 10 out of them this year with a newer coach finally getting his players into his system. In 2008-2009, SIUE beat them in a new years eve overtime thriller. It's nice to get them into our building for once though. Like the UTM game, I like the matchup within the OVC. This is a team we can beat. I wouldn't go as far to say we should win this game, but its close. They play a tough non-conference schedule, including Iowa State, UAB, SIU Carbondale and Arkansas. They'll be tested come this one. Derek Thompson is a sophomore who could break out this year, and Allison is a tough senior to deal with. He shot 46 percent from distance last year.


Let's put the win probability at 65 percent, give or take. It's an rudimentary estimate.

February 3 vs. South Dakota: see earlier

Feb. 12, vs Robert Morris (Ill.) 

Even the SIUE athletic website has the wrong Robbie Morris listed on its schedule!  On the Cougar site, the Robert Morris Colonels, champions of the  Northeast Conference have their logo pictured. PSYCH! We get the Eagles from the USCAA again. 

Even though they are not in the NCAA or even the NAIA, give them respect and play them like they are, and you get yourself a guaranteed win. The Cougars looked a little jet-lagged against the Eagles last year. That won't happen again. Cougars win big.  

Win probability: 100 percent 

February 22 vs.Tennessee Tech: See part II


Feb. 24. vs. Hannibal LaGrange

Apparently when there isn't a post-season, you conclude every year with Hannibal LaGrange. It's senior day, it's Hannibal LaGrange, no knock once again, but yeah...why not? 


Win probability: 100 percent

Well, that's all for looking at our opponents. We are just 13 days from the beginning of a beautiful season of college basketball at SIU Edwardsville and throughout the country. This is the greatest sport there is, and although we cannot make it to the big dance quite yet, ecougarzone.com will be here for every step throughout the season and I promise the postings will be more consistent because this is what I truly love. 


It's getting busy, so here is a brief rundown of things to come. 

Wednesday is SIUE media day. I will post videos of the whole press conference as well as preview the upcoming season and team in a more structured format. 


At media day, Coach Forrester, David Boarden and Mark Yelovich are scheduled to address us and answer questions representing the men's team. Coach Amanda Levens, Raven Berry and Melia Duncan will be present for the women. We will have coverage on both. 

Sometime before the season we will take a look at the OVC, and rank the teams, and pick ecougarzone.com all-conference teams. I tweeted my picks earlier, but will tell you why. I picked Yelovich as a second-teamer, although he is technically an Independent player. 

In honor of midmajority.com, and in conjunction with their own series, we will hold a series of essay posts to look at things from a different perspective. This will be a seven part series, day to day and are already pretty much ready to go and focus on the larger point of respect. The first post, superiority "c"omplex will be about SIUE's relationship with SIU Carbondale and my feelings towards it. It won't be mean at all, I was a fan of theirs growing up and we will go from there. 

Also, hoping to do a roundtable coveritlive chat the night before the season and invite everyone to just talk SIUE hoops before we kick it off.  This will either be the 11th or the 6th depending on whether or not we want it before IPFW or the exhibition. It's your guys call. The 11th we may be pre-occupied with soccer depending on how far the Cougars go in the MVC.


Let's get ready to have some fun SIUE.

Posted in: Archives,Men's basketball